Cubs Playoffs

MLB playoff picture: Cubs' chances, how wild card round would shake out

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The playoff race in Major League Baseball continues to heat up, and while divisional races are mostly settled, wild card battles continue to rage.

For the Chicago Cubs, they would be in the playoffs if they started on Sunday, owning a one-game lead over the Miami Marlins in that race. They also are just a half-game behind the Arizona Diamondbacks for the second wild card spot, with a strong finish required to reach the postseason for the first time since 2020.

What are the Cubs’ playoff chances?

With a one-game lead over the Marlins, the Cubs currently have a 59% chance of reaching the postseason, according to Fangraphs. They will need to finish ahead of Miami in the standings, as they lost the head-to-head series during the regular season.

The Cubs are also just one half-game behind the Diamondbacks for the second wild card spot, but also lost their head-to-head series with Arizona.

Here are the current wild card standings:

Phillies: 86-69

Diamondbacks: 81-73

Cubs: 81-74

Marlins: 80-75 (1 GB)

Reds: 79-77 (2.5 GB)

Giants: 77-78 (4 GB0

Each team’s upcoming schedule


Vs. Mets Sept. 24, vs. Pirates Sept. 26-28, at Mets Sept. 29-Oct. 1


At Yankees Sept. 24-25, at White Sox Sept. 26-28, vs. Astros Sept. 29-Oct. 1


Vs. Rockies Sept. 24, at Braves Sept. 26-28, at Brewers Sept. 29-Oct. 1


Vs. Brewers Sept. 24, at Mets Sept. 26-28, at Pirates Sept. 29-Oct. 1


Vs. Pirates Sept. 24, at Guardians Sept. 26-27, at Cardinals Sept. 29-Oct. 1


At Dodgers Sept. 24, vs. Padres Sept. 25-27, vs. Dodgers Sept. 29-Oct. 1

If the season ended today….

The National League Wild Card series, which start on Tuesday, would feature a divisional matchup, with the Brewers taking on the Cubs at American Family Field in Milwaukee. The other series would feature the Phillies hosting the Diamondbacks in the best-of-three series in the City of Brotherly Love.

The Atlanta Braves would own the top seed in the National League, and would get the winner of the Phillies-Diamondbacks series in the National League Division Series. The Los Angeles Dodgers would face the winner of the Brewers-Cubs series.

In the American League, the Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers would own the top seeds, and would get a bye to the Division Series.

The Orioles would face the winner of the three-game series between the Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays, while the Rangers would face the winner of the series between the Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros.  

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