Cubs' odds in inaugural draft lottery for '23 No. 1 pick


Will the ping pong balls bounce in the Cubs’ favor?

The odds are long.

MLB is holding its inaugural draft lottery Tuesday at the Winter Meetings, a system that will determine which teams make the first six selections in the 2023 MLB Draft. Here's how it works and how the Cubs fit in:

— The 18 non-playoff teams from 2022 have odds ranging from 0.2 to 16.5 percent to land the No. 1 pick. Lottery odds are determined by reverse order of 2022 record (worst to best).

— Teams with the three worst records in 2022 have equal odds to land the top pick at 16.5 percent (Nationals, A’s and Pirates). The Cubs, who finished 74-88 last season, face much longer odds at 1.1 percent.

— After the lottery sorts out the top six, the remaining non-playoff teams will draft in the first round in reverse order of record.

— Lottery results don't extend beyond Round 1. In rounds 2-20, non-playoff teams will draft in reverse order of record.

The lottery was implemented as part of MLB’s new collective bargaining agreement to disincentivize tanking. In past seasons, reverse order determined draft order for non-playoff teams.

The lottery is set for 7:30 p.m. CT Tuesday and will be broadcast live on MLB Network. The full list of odds for the No. 1 pick.

  • Nationals, A’s and Pirates: 16.5 percent
  • Reds: 13.2 percent
  • Royals: 10 percent
  • Tigers: 7.5 percent
  • Rangers: 5.5 percent
  • Rockies: 3.9 percent
  • Marlins: 2.7 percent
  • Angels: 1.8 percent
  • Diamondbacks: 1.4 percent
  • Cubs: 1.1 percent
  • Twins: 0.9 percent
  • Red Sox: 0.8 percent
  • White Sox: 0.6 percent
  • Giants: 0.5 percent
  • Orioles: 0.4 percent
  • Brewers: 0.2 percent

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