Exciting news! Today's the day!
Say it with me: PECOTA's here! No more waiting anxiouly, sitting through endless months of cold rain and snow, staring at Baseball Prospectus with bated, angry, breath. PECOTA's here!
And yeah, Cubs pitchers and catchers are reporting, but today's about far more than that. PECOTA's here! Kris Bryant can wait; today's about getting mad! Specifically, getting mad at computers. Go ahead and open up Excel for the first time in five years and let the overwhelming rage wash over you.
Here they are, in all their glory. Some basics:
- Things look ... okay? On the surface, an 85-win projection would cause a panic felt all the way up the red line.
- But take a closer look, and you'll notice that the Cubs make the playoffs! If everything went exactly to PECOTA's plan, as it always does, the Cubs would be the second wild card team, and MAN would that be a ride. And you think your blood pressure is bad now?
- There's some sort of sweet irony in the Cubs getting one more win than last year's "disaster" and not *only* finishing higher in the division, but making the playoffs. I can't put my finger on it exactly, but it's there.
MLB
- The Cardinals are guaranteed to finish third, and in a boring city no less. Tough draw.
- BP projects Kyle Hendricks to be the Cubs' ace!
- (And Jon Lester to put up fourth starter stats, but dumb computers, what do they know)
- They also project Rowan Wick to have 10% of the team's saves this year, which will all presumably come anytime the Cubs aren't up exactly three going into the bottom of the ninth.
PECOTA 2020: Not great, but maybe better than last year? The Cubs can relate.