The White Sox added a lot of talent this offseason and more of the team’s top prospects are entering the fray, but is the team really ready to contend for a playoff spot in 2020?
Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projects player and team performances. This year’s projections are bullish on Luis Robert, which should have White Sox fans excited. On the overall team side though, it expects a mostly average season.
PECOTA’s team projections came out on Tuesday and the average win total for the White Sox is 83. PECOTA actually puts the team at 83-80, which is obviously impossible given the 162-game schedule, but we’ll assume the projections averaged out to 82.5-79.5 and the system rounded up for both numbers.
Would 82 or 83 wins be a successful campaign for the White Sox? The front office has put playoffs as a goal for 2020, which even in this projection isn’t much of a stretch. The second wild card spot is at 87 wins, which certainly puts the White Sox within range if a few things go their way in 2020.
The Minnesota Twins are projected to win the AL Central with 93 wins while the Cleveland Indians are second at 86-76. That would put the Indians one game behind the Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Angels for the wild card spots.
PECOTA also gave the White Sox an 18.1% chance of making the playoffs and a 5.9% chance to win the division. For all of the team’s additions and raised expectations, it could be a season or moderate growth instead of a full-on breakout season. Keep in mind, 83 wins would still be an 11-win improvement.
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