Here are three things to look for in Sunday's Bulls-Pacers matchup:
1. The Bulls' halfcourt defense, specifically the rotations vs. Indiana's passing
The Pacers are one of the more responsible teams in the league in terms of decision-making. Indiana is second in the league in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.90) and are led by the steady hand of free-agent acquisition Malcolm Brogdon, who is having a breakout year in his first season with the Pacers.
Brogdon (47.2%) and backup point guard TJ McConnell (37.0%) both maintain massive assist rates and keep the Pacers offense humming along. This game is likely to be a tough, back-and-forth affair but any chance Chicago has of putting this team away early comes down to forcing the normally turnover-averse Pacers into some mistakes, which the Bulls have actually been quite good at this year.
Chicago is fourth in the league in opponent's turnovers per game and 11th in percentage of points coming off of the fastbreak. If the Bulls can't get out in transition, they're going to have to execute in the halfcourt and that will mean moving the ball more.
If Otto Porter Jr.'s last two games against the Cavaliers and Pistons were any indication, he appears to be back in a groove and should be a big part of the Bulls offensive efficiency in the halfcourt improving.
But again, the Bulls best chance of winning Sunday's game against the Pacers is getting out in transition and...
2. Winning the 3-point battle
This is one that actually weighs heavily in the Bulls favor on paper.
The Pacers have actually been solid in limiting their opponent's 3-point attempts, only allowing 28.4 3-point attempts per game (4th least in the league). But the Bulls have been one of the more aggressive perimeter shooting teams, taking 36.8 3-point attempts per game (7th in the league).
Though the Pacers are limiting their opponent's shots from deep, they are allowing a very high percentage. Opponents are shooting 39.4% from 3-point range on the Pacers, which is the 3rd worst mark in the league. This is one of the early games on the schedule where the Bulls' shooters should be able to get out of their collective slumps.
The Bulls shot 40.0% from the 3-point line on 40 attempts against the Pistons, with Lauri Markkanen going 3-7 from deep. If the Bulls can convert on clean looks from 3-point range early, the should be able to take an early lead even if we continue to see lackluster defense.
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3. Malcolm Brogdon vs. ???
How the Bulls choose to guard Malcolm Brogdon—who is in the midst of the best stretch of his career—will be interesting. Jim Boylen could opt to have LaVine take the challenge of guarding Brogdon, allowing the defenders to switch as needed so LaVine isn't truly matched up with him 24/7.
More likely options to cover Brogdon are Otto Porter, who Boylen may go with to frustrate Brogdon with a bigger defender, or Tomas Satoransky, who matches him in quickness and length.
Coming into Sunday's Bulls-Pacers game, Brogdon is averaging 22.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 10.2 assists per game, all career-highs. He is by no means an explosive guard, but he uses his change of pace moves to open up avenues to the basket, Brogdon is shooting (also a career-best) 6.2 free throws per game.
Perhaps the biggest indicator of the clear step up in Brogdon's production is the fact that he has four double-doubles in five games when his previous high for double-doubles in a season was two.
Brogdon is leading the Pacers in points, assists, is fourth in rebounds, and is the team's most aggressive 3-point shooter. His basketball-IQ and remarkably dependable shooting—Brogdon is shooting 96.8% from the free-throw line and 36.0% from the 3-point line this season—are the same traits that reportedly had the Bulls as one of the teams interested in Brogdon this past offseason.
Simply put, if the Bulls want to come out of Sunday's matchup with a comfortable win, slowing down Brogdon will be key. He is the engine that powers the Pacers' offense.
If Brogdon gets off to a solid start on Sunday, then it will take a solid closeout effort in the 4th quarter for the Bulls to secure the win, something they have not shown the capacity to do on a regular basis.
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