Bears maintain No. 2 pick; could earn first pick

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After Saturday's loss to the Bills, the Bears withhold the No. 2 pick in the 2023 NFL draft. 

Is there a good chance they could snag the first pick? 

Now, there is. Sort of. 

The Houston Texans defeated divisional opponent Tennessee Titans on Saturday, lifting them to two wins this season. The Texans' record now stands at 2-12-1, giving them a .167 win percentage –  worse than the Bears' .200. 

However, if the Bears lose the last two games of the season, and the Texans win one of their last two games, the Bears will overtake them in the draft order for the first selection. The Texans' tie would give them a higher win percentage than the Bears with the same number of wins. 

Over the final two weeks of the regular season, the Bears will play the Detroit Lions at home and the Minnesota Vikings on the road. Both teams are in the playoff hunt, despite the Lions losing to the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. 

As for the Texans, they will take on the Jacksonville Jaguars – who they defeated earlier this season –  and the Indianapolis Colts. Both games are certainly within range for them to win. 

However, knowing they've put the first pick at risk, it seems more likely the Texans will find a way to lose. 

RELATED: What we learned as Bills stop Fields at frigid Soldier Field

As of Dec. 20, ESPN's FPI (Football Power Index) gave the Bears a 10 percent chance of earning the first pick over the Texans. It will be captivating to see how much the Bears' chances spike after the Texans came out of Week 16 with an upset win. 

Also, the Bears' odds of keeping the No. 2 overall pick will inevitably rise on Christmas day, as the only two, four-win teams behind the Bears – the Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos – face off against each other, forcing one of them to become a five-win team. 

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