Sean McVay’s Rams are among the NFL’s most effective rushing teams on first down entering Week 7. They’re averaging 5.5 yards per carry with a 61 percent success rate on first down, both third in the league, while running it 57 percent of the time (8th highest, per SharpFootballStats).
This strategy allows Jared Goff to get into a rhythm and be highly effective throwing on second down – on second and six or less, he’s averaging 9.4 yards per attempt, fourth-best in the NFL.
Getting Goff off schedule will be critical for the Bears’ defense. Goff averages 6.8 yards per attempt on second and seven or more, a little below the league average (7.4 yards per attempt). And when facing third and long (seven or more yards), Goff averages 6.6 yards per attempt, a yard and a half lower than the league average.
Meanwhile, Goff on third and four or less averages 12.5 yards per attempt, easily the best in the NFL (Bears quarterbacks, in the same situation this year: 3.5 yards per attempt). That’s what a good, play action heavy offense looks like. And while the Rams are going to use play action even if they can’t establish the run, Goff is not a quarterback who carry an offense on his own – especially against a defense as good as the Bears have.
But the Bears’ defensive weakness is against the run, and McVay surely will attack it to try to make things easier on his quarterback. If the Bears’ defense makes things difficult on Goff by keeping the Rams’ offense off schedule and in obvious passing downs, it’ll be a long, long night for the former No. 1 overall pick.