The first question I have here: Would Nagy still be calling plays?
Nagy gave up playcalling before the Vikings game, and while offensive coordinator Bill Lazor's transition into that role wasn't an immediate success, it does look like he's found some solutions - with Trubisky's input.
"I just thought it was a good idea to get Cole (Kmet) more involved, to get David more involved, to get A-Rob more involved," Trubisky said. "You just gotta get the ball to your playmakers out in space and stretch the field horizontally and vertically but also keeping the defense off balance and I think the change in tempo really helps this offense. I think moving the pocket really helps me and helps our offensive line and also helps create run lanes.
"So these are things I’m very comfortable with, things I’ve been asking for and I think everyone’s buying into it and I think we’re starting to build an identity and we just need to keep getting better and better. At the end of the day when we play 11 guys as one and we’re playing as a unit and we’re executing, that’s when the good plays will continue to happen."
Maybe getting Kmet, Montgomery and Robinson heavily involved in the offense would've happened anyway as an identity was built. Or maybe if Nagy hadn't given up playcalling, Trubisky wouldn't have had as much input.
But regardless of who's calling plays, I think the Bears still lose to the Colts, Rams, Saints and Packers with Trubisky at QB. Those four teams are in a different class.
Trubisky started the second Lions game and fumbled it away at the end – after the defense gave up way too many points – so I think that’s still a loss, too.
The Bears still beat the Panthers and Texans here, adding to those wins over the Lions and Giants to start the season. So that gets us four definite wins and five definite losses.
I’m not convinced the Bears would’ve came back against the Falcons had Trubisky not been benched, so we’ll count that as a loss, too.
Would the Bears have lost to Tampa Bay without Foles? Maybe. Foles made a tremendous throw to Montgomery to set up the game-winning field goal, and the Bucs’ defense is outstanding – they’re fifth in DVOA – so there is a possibility that game would flip to a loss, too.
But that win over the Bucs was more defined by Khalil Mack scrambling Tom Brady’s brain than anything else. I’m still going to count it as a win.
That leaves two games up in the air: Week 9 at Tennessee and Week 10 vs. Minnesota.
I think the Bears go into Tennessee and win with the Trubisky-led offense they’ve been running lately, one which has played well against bad defenses, sure. The Titans have a bad defense, and the Bears held Derrick Henry in check and Tennessee’s offense to 17 points.
Montgomery didn’t play against the Vikings, which is a wrinkle here. But even if the Bears scored 20 points – only 13 on offense when adding in Cordarrelle Patterson’s kickoff return – they would’ve won. That’s not too tall a task, although it was for the Bears’ offense with Foles in at quarterback.
So that gets the Bears to 7-6, tied with the Arizona Cardinals going into the final three weeks of the season and feeling a lot better about their chances of making the playoffs. We’re probably not wondering if Nagy or Ryan Pace will get fired at the end of the year, because it’s not something George McCaskey is thinking about.
Nagy said after the Bears beat the Texans that Trubisky’s progress has been “real” recently. And, knowing what we know now, wouldn’t it have been nice to find out if he could’ve made that “real” progress in October, and not in December with the season on the brink?
"You can’t change the past, so we are where we are now and the offense is progressing over the last few weeks and all we can do is try to stay on this path that we are now and keep getting better," Trubisky said. "Can’t change the past. I can’t put myself back in the game a couple weeks ago or anything like that."