Chicago Bears projected 2023 draft selection, scenarios


Since the Bears have the second-worst win percentage in the NFL, they currently own the No. 2 overall pick in the upcoming NFL draft. 

But, the Bears, along with the rest of the NFL, have three more weeks of games to play in the regular season. 

MORE: Here's the rest of the Bears' 2023 schedule

Hence, the Bears' draft pick could change from No. 2 to virtually anywhere else in the draft not further than the No. 14 overall pick. (The Bears can only win up to six games this season, which would place them in the No. 14 selection if every other team loses out.)

ESPN's FPI (Football Power Index) indicates the Bears have an overwhelmingly large chance of securing a pick in the top ten draft selections (99.4 percent). They also report the Bears to have an 86.7 percent chance of landing in the top five and a 8.5 percent chance of landing the first selection. 

According to the same metric, they calculated the Bears' average draft position of 3.4 for all considerable measurements. That ranks as the second-lowest value behind the Houston Texans.

Here are a couple of scenarios to keep in mind for the Bears' draft position:

If the Bears lose out, the worst draft pick they would receive is the No. 2 overall selection. This is the current selection they own. They could grab the first pick, but it would take the Texans winning two of their last three games. 

If the Bears win one game of the remaining three, the worst draft pick they would receive is No. 4. This is because, of the three, four-win teams, two of them (Rams and Broncos) play each other once before the season ends, forcing one of them to move to five wins. 

This scenario goes onward for another three wins to the Bears. The point, however, is this – the Bears play with fire for every win they tally the rest of the season. A win would give them a better record, hence a potentially worse draft pick. But, the Bears can't win any tiebreakers against their draft position opponents because they have the highest strength of schedule, meaning they would lose every tiebreaker. 

Now that the Bears have officially been eliminated from the playoffs, there isn't much more to accomplish this season.

Justin Fields proved he is the team's starting quarterback. The organization has major fish to fry this offseason in free agency and the draft. Since the team already has its quarterback, they hold a lot of potential leverage with their draft position in a top-heavy quarterback draft. 

All that's left to do is lose, and hope the teams below them tack on meaningless wins. 

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