PHOENIX -- Armed with around $100 million in salary cap space and the No. 1 overall pick, the Bears and general manager Ryan Poles can go any number of ways in what is expected to be a transformational offseason.
The prevailing belief from those around the NFL is that the Bears will trade the No. 1 pick for a haul of draft assets. The most-discussed scenarios have the Bears gobbling up a few key free agents before dealing the No. 1 pick for future draft capital and selecting the best player available when they go on the clock.
But former Atlanta Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff and Eric Eager of Sumer Sports, a new analytics company aimed at helping NFL teams build smarter rosters, see a different path.
Eager, who worked at Pro Football Focus before becoming VP of R&D at Sumer, believes that spending a lot of money in free agency won't get the Bears where they need to go. As Eager sees it, the Bears can use that $100 million to add solid veterans who raise the team's floor but not their ceiling -- the same way the Jaguars did last offseason -- or they can look to acquire a premium player in a trade for the No. 1 pick and then pay that player. Eager's point is that players like Burns don't make it to free agency, so using the No. 1 pick to acquire him is the Bears' best option to add blue-chip talent.
Eager has one in mind: Carolina Panthers defensive end Brian Burns.
"Carolina needs a quarterback," Eager told NBC Sports Chicago at Super Bowl LVII's Radio Row. "Frank Reich has never drafted a quarterback before that he has gotten to play high. Brian Burns is there. Really valuable player. He's probably worth $25 million on the open market, but he's never going to get to the open market because he is a premier player. You could trade the No. 1 pick to Carolina. Carolina gives you Burns and other picks, and you are able to use that $25 million more efficiently than you would in the open market, where the type of edge players you're going to get are Trey Hendrickson, Carl Lawson-type players.
"When you have $100 million and the No. 1 pick, you need to bring home three or four stud players who you can put on thee [Super Bowl] posters one day."
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Dimitroff, who was named Executive of the Year two times during his run with the Falcons, believes Eager's idea is the right path for the Bears. If he were in Poles' shoes, he would prefer to bring home a premier player and less draft capital in a deal for the No. 1 pick.
"The premium player is a little more interesting to me," Dimitroff told NBC Sports Chicago. "My good friend [Los Angeles Rams general manager] Les Snead did it with the 'F the picks' idea. There is something to be said about knowing what you are getting. I will say this, there are many, many mistakes on pass rushers [in the draft]. I've seen it. People are going for need. They may see a really athletic guy who can get around the corner. We did it in Atlanta. I loved Vic Beasley. He won the sack title in '16, and then he fizzled. He fizzled because he wasn't passionate about the game. Good man, but we missed on that. Because we were driven by need.
"Les Snead's idea of waiting and trading away picks was, 'We know what we are going to be getting in these veterans. At times, there's a need for that.' You know the warts, so to speak. And when you bring them into your organization, you're not worried about them because you know the kid can play. ... That was Les' point to me recently because he was describing it to me. I said, 'How would you ever lose all of those picks? Those fresh picks?' His point was, 'We have hit on those veterans because we know what we are getting.' That's the one thing, as I think about it more, I would love to have a veteran in [Chicago] some way and I think that organization might need it."
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Burns, 24, notched a career-high 12.5 sacks this past season. In four seasons in Carolina, Burns has 38 sacks, 77 quarterback hits, and 43 tackles for loss.
Panthers general manager Scott Fitterer recently said the Panthers' "ideal" quarterback plan would be to "draft and develop" a signal-caller to pair with new head coach Frank Reich. Sitting at No. 9 in the draft, the Panthers currently find themselves out of the Bryce Young-C.J. Stroud conversation.
But one phone call to Poles can change that. Moving down eight spots might be too big of a drop for Poles. But if the Panthers build their offer around Burns, the Bears might not be able to say no.
Elite edge rushers don't grow on trees. While Will Anderson, Tyree Wilson, and Myles Murphy are appealing, we already know what Burns is at the NFL level: A game-wrecker who has yet to enter his prime.
That's something the Bears desperately need.