ESPN NFL analyst Louis Riddick is one of the most respected voices in football media when it comes to talent evaluation. He was also one of Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky's biggest advocates during the preseason and start of the 2019 regular season.
Riddick, like the entire Bears fanbase, expected big things from Trubisky in Year 2 under coach Matt Nagy.
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Unfortunately, Trubisky's season has fallen way short of expectations so far. He was recently ranked the 28th-best quarterback in the NFL by Pro Football Focus, ahead of only Case Keenum (29), Kyle Allen (30), and Mason Rudolph (31). PFF didn't rank 32 quarterbacks due to sample size.
Not ideal for the player Bears general manager Ryan Pace hinged his reputation on.
According to Riddick, the Bears will likely have a new starter under center in 2020.
"I think Matt Nagy will nurse this to the end of the season," Riddick said Friday on ESPN's Get Up. "I think he will do what he needs to do in order to get Mitch to play at a level that will allow them a chance to compete for a wild card berth. They're not going to win the (NFC) North this year."
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Here's the rub: If the Bears manage to stay in a wild-card race, does that mean Trubisky gets another season to prove he can develop into a franchise passer? No, according to Riddick.
"I think come 2020, I personally think Matt's going to look at this and go, 'Look, look at the quarterbacks that I had when I was in Kansas City. I had Alex Smith, who's maybe one of the most cerebral quarterbacks to ever play the game, I had Pat Mahomes who's one of the most naturally gifted to ever play the game. With Mitch, I'm kind of in purgatory, so to speak. I don't have a guy who's known to be a cerebral type who can just figure it out or a guy who necessarily has unique throwing ability.'
"And I think that's going to lead him down a road to maybe say, hey, look, we may need to go in a different direction if we want to ultimately get to a Super Bowl."
It's hard to argue with Riddick, especially considering how maddeningly inconsistent Trubisky's proven to be as a pure passer. It's one thing if he's making the wrong reads or still needs time to process Nagy's offense at a faster pace. Those issues can be corrected with experience. But the basic fundamentals of throwing a consistently catchable pass are lacking from Trubisky's game, and unless the Bears want to invest years of coaching into rebuilding him from the ground up, there may be no other alternative than to move on.
It's important to remember that player narratives can shift -- quickly -- in just four quarters. In Week 9's game against a lowly Eagles secondary, Trubisky will have another opportunity to do that. If he throws for 300 yards and multiple touchdowns, his arrow will point up. The key, however, is for him to make sure it stays that way for the rest of the year.
Otherwise, Riddick's prediction will become a reality.
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