When teams draft a guy with a Top-10 pick, they expect big time production from him. Those players can become game-changers at any position, but to maximize production for the whole team, the key is to add value throughout the whole draft. That's to say, finding players who out-perform their draft slot.
The Ringer put out a list on Thursday aiming to identify the most-valuable players drafted since 2000. They did it by comparing a player's approximate value (AV) according to Pro Football Reference to his draft slot's AV according to Chase Stuart's draft value chart.
After going through all the players, lo-and-behold, Lance Briggs (drafted in the third round, No. 68 overall) made the list for the Bears, coming in at No. 16 overall. Here's the explanation from The Ringer:
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"The value of a tackling machine like Briggs has lessened as football has gone to the air, but in his era, he was a pillar of a Chicago defense that finished in the top 10 in DVOA seven times in nine seasons. From 2003 to 2012 (the first decade of his career), Briggs tallied 85 tackles for loss — second only to teammate Brian Urlacher among off-ball linebackers during that span. The difference in draft value between Urlacher (the ninth overall pick in 2000) and Briggs is equal to the 32nd overall pick in the draft."
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Certainly a compelling case for Briggs. But another guy who fits the bill and didn't make the list is Eddie Jackson.
The Bears snagged Jackson in the fourth round (No. 112 overall) of the 2017 draft. According to Chase Stuart's draft chart that pick carries an AV of 4.6. However in only three seasons, Jackson has already racked up a 30 AV, according to Pro Football Reference.
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A two-time Pro Bowler and an All-Pro in 2018, Jackson has already demonstrated game-changing ability with 10 picks, five fumble recoveries and five total touchdowns. Jackson also started all 16 games in his rookie season, and 46 out of 49 total games since he was drafted, so he made an instant impact despite his lower draft slot.
Compare that to Jamal Adams, the first safety off the board in 2017 at the No. 6 overall pick. Adams has compiled an AV of 29 in three seasons — one less than Jackson. Going one step further, the difference in draft value between No. 6 and No. 112 is 18.6 AV, or the No. 13 overall pick. So, by waiting until the fourth round to select Jackson, the Bears essentially received the value of another first-rounder. Good stuff.
While he's still got a ways to go before he matches Briggs's Hall-of-Fame-worthy career, when it's all said and done Jackson may supplant Briggs as the Bears' most valuable draft pick of the 21st century.
