Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is the favorite to win the NFL MVP award in 2019 because of his dazzling combination of rare skills. He's on pace to break Mike Vick's record for most rushing yards by a quarterback while effectively managing the pocket as an accurate passer who can equally destroy defenses with his arm.
He's the perfect weapon. And unlike his 2018 NFL Draft classmates Baker Mayfield (Browns), Sam Darnold (Jets), Josh Allen (Bills) and even Josh Rosen (Dolphins), he barely heard his name called in the first round.
It took a bold trade by then-general manager Ozzie Newsom to move back into the first round — No. 32 overall — to make sure Baltimore secured the player who's now become the NFL's biggest and brightest superstar.
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The Ravens weren't a quarterback-desperate team at the start of the 2018 draft. Veteran Joe Flacco, who had his fair share of critics at the time, was still considered at least a competent starter who could manage his way to victories. He finished 9-7 in 2017 despite a regression in his stats (3,141 yards, 18 TDs, 13 ints) and while Newsome had his eye on prospects at the position, the Ravens weren't in striking distance for any of the class's top passers.
Jackson wasn't considered among that group by many draft pundits.
But Jackson continued to slide, pick after pick. With one selection remaining in the first round, and Jackson still on the board, Newsome traded the 52nd and 125th picks of the 2018 draft as well as Baltimore's second-round pick in 2019 to the Eagles to move into the 32nd and last selection of Round 1. He picked Jackson. And the rest is history.
There are a few things Bears GM Ryan Pace can learn from this. First, there's no reason to panic after an incumbent starter has a season that didn't live up to expectations. Flacco remained Baltimore's starter for most of 2018; it effectively allowed Jackson to fall to the Ravens. It also allowed Jackson to sit for most of his rookie season while Flacco continued his slow descent. But more important than remaining calm is also knowing when to be aggressive. Just because there's a veteran starter on the roster doesn't mean a player with potentially special traits should be ignored.
NFL
The Bears have the ammunition to trade into the final five picks of the first round of the 2020 NFL draft. Recent draft-day trades to move back into the first round included the following compensation:
2019:
-Giants trade #37, #132 and #142 to Seahawks for #30
-Falcons trade #45, #79 to Rams for #31 and #203
2018:
Ravens trade #54, #125 and 2019 2nd rounder to Eagles for #32
2016:
Broncos trade #31 and #94 to Seahawks for #26
(note: Denver traded a first-rounder, but it was at the end of the round and has similar value to an early second-round pick).
Chicago enters Week 13 with two selections in the top 50 (no. 46 and 49). The Ravens' and Falcons' trades from the last two draft years are proof that a combination of one of those second-rounders and picks in later (or future) rounds is enough to move into the back-end of Round 1. There's no doubt about it: the Bears can move back into the first round if they want to.
But the bigger and more relevant question will be whether there's a player (specifically a quarterback) who's worthy of making an aggressive jump back into the first round, especially considering the presence of Mitch Trubisky on the roster.
Recent draft history would suggest selecting a quarterback in the final 10 picks of the first round is a recipe for failure. Six quarterbacks have been selected between picks 22 and 32 since 2010. Jackson is the only star of the bunch, which includes:
2018: Lamar Jackson (32nd overall)
2016: Paxton Lynch (26th overall)
2014: Johnny Manziel (22nd overall)
2014: Teddy Bridgewater (32nd overall)
2012: Brandon Weeden (22nd overall)
2010: Tim Tebow (25th overall)
The early returns on the likely 2020 NFL Draft quarterback class are strong. Prospects like LSU's Joe Burrow, Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa and Oregon's Justin Herbert are all expected to come off the board in the top 15 picks. Oklahoma's Jalen Hurts is in that mix too, but his resume as a passer may not be strong enough to keep him in the early-to-mid first-round range.
Sound familiar?
Hurts is having a fantastic 2019 season under Lincoln Riley's tutelage, and if NFL scouting departments do their jobs properly, he won't make it to or beyond the 22nd pick. But if he does, Pace has to at least warm up the phone lines. Hurts is the only quarterback in this year's class who combines the two things Jackson had in 2018: High-end playmaking talent and the chance to slip out of the first round.
The Bears could trade the 46th pick in Round 2, a fifth-round selection and a future pick to move into a selection between No. 30 and No. 32 overall if Hurts' evaluation justifies the jump.
And that's the key: the Bears have to be certain a player like Hurts has the kind of upside they can't live without, much like the Ravens did with Jackson. Otherwise, the risk greatly outweighs the reward, as the draft history since 2010 proves.
Quarterback-needy teams will try their best to copy what the Ravens have done in 2019. It's a near-impossible task; there won't be another 'Lamar Jackson' coming out for a decade (or more). But it doesn't mean Pace shouldn't take note of the strategy Newsome used to enhance Baltimore's quarterback room. The Bears can do the same in 2020, assuming Pace is brave enough.
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