(Too) Bold Predictions aims to take nuanced, well-researched information and use it to make wildly improbable predictions. Analysis!
J.J. Stankevitz
1. Roy Robertson-Harris will get his first career touchdown.
Here is a sequence of four numbers: 3, 2, 2, 3. That's the number of fumbles New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has had in his last four games, which has thoroughly counter-acted some good passing performances (four touchdowns and no interceptions vs. the Lions and Jets). The Giants, like every other team since Akiem Hicks went on injured reserve, will try to do everything in their power to make sure Khalil Mack does not wreck Sunday's game. Eventually, someone has to win on a pass rush besides Mack, and we'll say that guy is Robertson-Harris multiple times on Sunday. On one of them, he'll knock the ball out, recover it and dash 12 yards into the end zone for a touchdown.
2. Mitch Trubisky will throw for 250 yards.
Think that's a low number and not a very bold prediction? His season high is 235, with a chunk of those coming in garbage time against the New Orleans Saints. Even in facing a beat-up and bad Lions secondary two weeks ago, Trubisky only managed 145 passing yards. Matt Nagy will use Sunday's game as an opportunity to boost Trubisky's confidence against an atrocious Giants secondary that's allowing 8.27 yards per pass, the second-worst average in the NFL. Again: 250 yards is not much. But the Bears will get Trubisky over that hump on Sunday.
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Cam Ellis
1. Taylor Gabriel will have over 150 receiving yards.
The Bears' offense badly wants to hit on a deep play ONE of these weeks, and the Giants' defense is as good a shot as they're going to get for the rest of the season. They have the 28th-ranked pass defense (DVOA) and are allowing the the 6th-highest yards per play (6.0). The Bears love that deep ball to Gabriel, and are clearly trying to get Anthony Miller more involved with the vertical passing game lately. Gabriel is averaging 11.9 yards per reception this season, but hasn't had a game average over 10 yards since Week 9's loss in Philly. His best games this season have come against the NFC East, so we'll say that continues today in a big way.
2. A Bears' defensive player will score a touchdown in the 4th quarter ... for the offense.
Here's what Matt Nagy said this week about not going to those fun trick plays as much in 2019:
I think some of it really when it comes down to it is, we want to have a little bit better execution on our end offensively ... We had some times last year where we were getting some defensive players involved in the scheme and maybe we get back to that here. Maybe we don’t. Where I think it comes from really up until this point is No. 1, you gotta get down there in that part of the red zone. And then when you do, you want to be able to execute with your own guys on offense, too. That’s part of it as well.
It makes sense. It certainly doesn't feel like Nagy's lost the locker room yet, but I can't begin to imagine how using a defensive player in the red zone would go over, behind closed doors, with this year's offense. But the Bears are desperate to recapture any hint of last year's vibe, and if the offense goes up 2-3 scores in the second half, there's a non-zero chance that Eddie Jackson lines up at WR. Remember this when the Bears run a playaction boot from the 10 to tight end Nick Kwiatkoski.