GLENDALE, Ariz. — One year ago today, the Blackhawks found themselves seven points out of the final wildcard spot in the Western Conference and one point out of last place. They had six teams to jump coming out of the NHL All-Star break and bye week, which seemed like a monumental task at the time.
But just 10 days later, the Blackhawks sat in a playoff spot — ever so briefly — after rattling off five consecutive wins. That’s how quickly things can change.
The Blackhawks are in a much better position this time around. They’re only four points out with two games in hand on the Arizona Coyotes, who occupy the second spot going into Saturday.
But what will it take for the Blackhawks to make the playoffs?
Over the last five seasons, the average cutoff line in the West has been 93 points. Last season it was 90 and that's the projected number for this season, but it probably won’t stay that way.
The Blackhawks are on pace to finish with 87 points, which won’t be enough to get it done. But since Dec. 19, they have 22 points in 16 games for a win percentage of .688, which ranks seventh-best in the span. Over the course of an 82-game season, that’s a 113-point pace. That'll work.
In reality, the math is still stacked against them.
NHL
According to Hockey Reference, the Blackhawks have a 33.8 percent chance of making the playoffs. Money Puck's model has them at 38.8 and The Athletic's model at 34.
But the Blackhawks are taking it one game at a time.
"If we can get three or four points from this road trip, I think that can bring a lot of momentum into the last 30 games we have here,” Erik Gustafsson said. “If we can win [tonight] that's going to build confidence in our group. It's huge."
The Blackhawks are aware of what's at stake in February. Three of the next four games are against teams within four points of the Blackhawks in the wildcard race. The three after that are against Pacific Division opponents, all of whom are separated by only two points. Two of the three games following that stretch include Winnipeg and Nashville, both of which are either tied or within a point of the Blackhawks.
The Blackhawks' playoff fate could be decided over the next three weeks. At the very least, it will give GM Stan Bowman a better outlook of the team going into the Feb. 24 trade deadline.
"Lots of games against teams that are right near us in the standings," Dylan Strome said. "Obviously [four] points away from these guys, and then Minnesota, we're pretty close as well. They're huge. This is a critical time in the year to see where we're at. Hopefully we can keep making a push."
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