Everyone knew it was coming. Even before the Bears landed the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft via the Carolina Panthers, the sense of dread that quarterback Caleb Williams, the prize of the 2024 class, would try to strong-arm his way out of being drafted to Chicago.
After all, who would want to start their career in the place where quarterbacks go to die?
Sure enough, the grim reaper arrived Thursday in the form of FOX Sports' Colin Cowherd speculating on his show that Williams and his camp won't want to go to Chicago and will try to get the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner to Washington. Williams is a D.C. native.
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As of Thursday, there had been no word from Williams or his camp that he doesn't want to be a Bear should general manager Ryan Poles decide to trade Justin Fields and draft the USC star.
On Thursday, Williams changed his Instagram picture to a photo of himself as a child wearing a shirt with a bear on it. Coincidence? Who the hell knows?
In 2020, famed radio host Dan Patrick said he heard Joe Burrow didn't want to play for the Cincinnati Bengals. Two months later, the Bengals picked Burrow with the No. 1 pick, and their franchise was forever altered.
This happens almost every year around this time. The NFL calendar slows, the news slows to a drip, and suddenly, one of the top picks in the draft either doesn't want to go somewhere or has an issue we haven't talked about.
CHICAGO BEARS
Here's what we need to discuss from Williams' perspective. Again, he has not indicated he doesn't want to play in Chicago. NFL insider Ian Rapoport's tweet announcing Williams' decision to declare included the note that the quarterback will be happy wherever he lands. People like Rapoport don't include things in tweets on a whim. Bookmark that.
Back to Williams.
Yes, the Bears have a long, tortured history of being unable to develop quarterbacks. There's no question about it.
But No. 1 overall picks almost always find themselves in the worst situation imaginable to begin their careers. They are tasked with joining a team that was the worst in the NFL and asked to save the franchise with limited weapons, perhaps a bad line, and a horrific defense.
Think Matthew Stafford on the 0-16 Detroit Lions, Alex Smith on the mid-2000s 49ers, Jared Goff on the Jeff Fisher-led Rams, and Baker Mayfield on the 0-16 Browns.
Since 2016, the team that has drafted No. 1 overall picks has ranked 19th, 31st, 25th, 26th, 31st, 13th, 25th, 28th, and 26th in scoring defense, respectively. Only the 2022 Panthers and 2015 Rams didn't rank in the bottom 10.
The Bears ranked 20th in points allowed and 12th in yards. But they got better as the season went along and finished No. 6 in scoring defense over the final nine games.
The Bears also have a proven elite wide receiver in DJ Moore, a reliable tight end in Cole Kmet, and another top-10 to potentially use on an elite weapon for Williams. The offensive line has a building block right tackle in Darnell Wright and a talented but injury-prone left guard in Teven Jenkins. The Bears have the resources to shore up the protection in front of Williams and have already poured capital into it with the selection of Wright and the signing of right guard Nate Davis.
The hits are piling up for Poles. He has been disciplined and sometimes cold with his roster-building approach. But he has added elite blue-chip players in Moore and Montez Sweat, has stacked the defense with a mix of young talent and veteran staples, and has the arrow pointing straight up for the Bears.
Should Williams land in Chicago, he would be entering a better situation than just about every other quarterback selected No. 1 in the last 20 years.
You can boogeyman the Bears' quarterback history all you want. Those are legitimate data points, but they also fall on the resume of past regimes.
Should there be concerns about head coach Matt Eberflus, his ability to foster the growth of a young quarterback, and his job security? Sure, those are fair.
But overall, the Bears are a fantastic situation for a young quarterback with Williams' generational skillset to land in. One that is primed for a young quarterback to enter and thrive, especially after hiring new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron.
That appears to be clear to the Williams camp as well.
On Friday, Cowherd went on his show and said he got a call from the Williams camp saying they aren't "anti-Chicago" and see a path to success with the Bears.
They should. The pieces are falling into place.
The Bears are a losing franchise. No question. You can't argue with recent history.
But Poles is putting together a roster to buck that trend -- to change the narrative.
But it only works if he gets the quarterback right.
Williams is that quarterback, and the two parties are exactly what each other needs.