The Bears aren’t ready to compete for a postseason spot. They’ve got a ways to go before they can even consider themselves among the middle of the pack in the NFL. But they’re not the worst team in the league this year.
In a vacuum, that is not a confidence-inspiring development. Teams should have higher standards than, “Hey, we’re not the worst.” Considering the complete selloff the team underwent in 2022, and the disastrous opening month of the 2023 season however, it feels like a momentous shift for the Bears.
Over the past four games the Bears have gone 2-2. Over their past six they’re 3-3. Again, playing .500 ball typically isn’t celebrated. For the Bears it’s a step in the right direction. On Monday, head coach Matt Eberflus shared some of the reasons why he believes the team has incrementally improved of late.
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“The three wins that we did have, the positivity of that was we had zero turnovers in those games and the turnover margin was plus-five,” Eberflus said.
Taking the ball away and taking care of the football are pillars of Eberflus’ program, but too often they haven’t met the mark. That was abundantly clear in their Week 9 loss to the Saints, when the team lost the turnover battle, 5-0 yet only lost the game 24-17. It’s easy to see why the Bears believe they could have won the game if they had simply narrowed that incredibly wide turnover margin.
The biggest turnaround for the team has come on defense. Last year the unit did almost nothing well after Ryan Poles traded away key players like Khalil Mack and Roquan Smith. This year there’s been a little talent infusion, an uptick in aggressive play calling with Eberflus at the helm, and more success.
The most notable area of growth has been run defense. In 2022, the team was tied for 26th in YPC allowed (4.9), 31st in yards per game allowed (157.3) and 32nd in rushing touchdowns allowed (31). This year, they’re first in YPC allowed (3.2), second in yards per game allowed (76) and tied for third in rushing touchdowns allowed (4).
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That’s a remarkable turnaround.
Although the numbers aren’t as dramatic, Eberflus also cited critical third-down improvements for the team over the last six games.
“Both in the top-10 during those games, and that was the reason why we were in most of those games and had a chance to win three of those, a chance to win the fourth and potentially another one there as well.”
It’s worth noting that the Bears have played some truly awful teams in the process. But the Bears have managed to beat those truly awful teams. That’s more than they could say for the majority of last season when they went on a franchise-record 10-game losing streak in 2022– then continued that streak with four more losses to start this year.
At the beginning of the season, some had sky-high expectations that the Bears would compete in the playoffs this year. I’ll admit, over the summer when vibes were at their absolute highest I thought the team had a chance to push for 10 wins. Obviously those expectations were misguided. But before you can be great, you have to be ok. And before you can be ok, you have to be not terrible. With better play– especially on defense– over the last month and a half, the Bears have at least separated themselves a bit from the true basement dwellers of the league.