Cubs free agent focus: Anthony Rendon

With Hot Stove season underway, NBC Sports Chicago is taking a look at some of MLB’s top free agents and how they’d fit with the Cubs.

Anthony Rendon is the top position player on the free agent market. Because he’s a third baseman, there’s no shot the Cubs — who have former MVP Kris Bryant manning the hot corner — sign the longtime Washington National, right?

There is a scenario where the Cubs could pursue Rendon. Let’s start with what makes the 29-year-old a desirable free agent.

In seven seasons, Rendon holds a career .290/.369/.490 slash line (.859 OPS), 126 OPS+ (league average is 100), 134 homers and 546 RBIs. He’s gotten even better since 2017, asserting himself as one of the game’s best third basemen. His averages from 2017-19:

.310/.397/.556 line (.953 OPS), 143 OPS+, 28 home runs and 106 RBIs

Rendon is also a solid defender and was named a 2019 Gold Glove Award finalist. Between his glove and bat, it’s easy to see why the Nationals offered him a seven-year extension worth $210-215 million in September — according to the Washington Post.

Roster Resource projects the Cubs’ 2020 payroll to be about $220 million, not counting any potential offseason moves. Unless they shed a bunch of salary this winter, the Cubs will exceed the luxury tax threshold for a second-straight season.

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For the Cubs to sign Rendon, they’d have to clear salary and open up third base. Accomplishing both is possible by trading Kris Bryant, something the Cubs aren’t jumping up and down to do.

However, Bryant, Javier Báez and Kyle Schwarber are all set to his free agency after the 2021 season. The Cubs will eventually pick up Anthony Rizzo’s 2021 team option, the last year of his contract. Willson Contreras is a free agent after 2022.

The Cubs have approached members of their core in the past to discuss contract extensions. They successfully extended Rizzo in 2013, buying out his arbitration years. In February, they agreed to a four-year extension with Kyle Hendricks, who otherwise would’ve become a free agent after the 2020 season.

The Cubs will follow suit with the aforementioned position players and have reportedly begun negotiating a long-term deal with Báez. If Theo Epstein and Co. can’t extend him — or any of their stars they must consider trading them to ensure the Cubs don’t lose them in free agency for nothing.

Bryant filed a grievance against the Cubs in 2015 following the organization’s decision to keep him in the minor leagues one day past the service time threshold. Doing so meant Bryant wouldn’t hit free agency until after 2021, not 2020.

If Bryant wins his grievance case — which will be resolved this offseason — he’ll become a free agent after next season rather than in two years. This would put the Cubs in a tough spot, as Bryant could depart a year from now, should he and the Cubs fail to negotiate a long-term deal.

The Cubs still have time to negotiate a long-term deal with Bryant. Plus, his agent — Scott Boras — laid out at the GM Meetings why it’s unlikely the Cubs will deal the 27-year-old.

Nonetheless, the Cubs can’t risk losing Bryant (and others) for nothing. If they feel Bryant is unlikely to sign an extension, a trade can’t be out of the question. But that’s the only way to fit Rendon on the Cubs for the next half-decade plus, as he'd provide the club with cost certainty moving forward.