The Bears' good vibes lasted almost three whole weeks, but the expiration date hit Sunday in their 20-17 meltdown loss to the Cleveland Browns at Cleveland Browns Stadium.
For the third time this season, the Bears let a double-digit, fourth-quarter lead slip away. Their playoff hopes almost certainly went with it.
At 5-9 and with three games left in a season that didn't meet expectations, the focus around the Bears now shifts to an offseason filled with big questions.
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Those questions start at quarterback after 38-year-old Joe Flacco outplayed Justin Fields in the fourth quarter in Cleveland.
Overreaction? Yes.
Is Fields the reason the Bears lost Sunday? If we're making a list, he doesn't top it.
But going 19-for-40 for 166 yards, one touchdown, and two Hail Mary interceptions isn't good enough. I'll acknowledge the Robert Tonyan cold drop that wiped away a big gain and possibly a 73-yard touchdown.
Yes, the interior of the offensive line was bullied.
But the guy on the other side was playing behind four backup offensive linemen and was on his couch a month ago. He threw for 212 yards in the fourth quarter.
The touchdown throw to Cole Kmet was special. But the consistency just hasn't been there with Fields.
For the second straight season, he's one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL in the fourth quarter. He ranks 29th in fourth-quarter passer rating, 30th in completion percentage, and is tied for the second-most interceptions with five.
Fields has improved his pocket presence, and the flashes come in spurts.
But Fields simply hasn't been good when franchise quarterbacks are supposed to elevate their games.
The Bears had five critical offensive drives in the fourth quarter Sunday in Cleveland that could have either put the game away or tied it at the end. Here's how they went:
-- Turnover on downs after Fields was tripped on fourth-and-1. He had DJ Moore open for a first down.
-- Three-and-out that ended with a puzzling jet sweep to Tyler Scott. Punt.
-- Khari Blasingame was beaten by linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who sacks Fields for a loss of 11 on second-and-7. Punt.
-- With the game tied, the Bears had the opportunity to put together a game-winning drive. They went three-and-out.
-- Trailing 20-17 with 32 seconds left, Fields gets the Bears to the edge of field goal range, but Darnell Mooney can't catch ricochet on a Hail Mary attempt.
There were a lot of issues on those drives, but Fields' inability to elevate and overcome in critical moments has been a throughline early in his career.
With the Bears facing the likelihood of owning the No. 1 pick, Fields must now be judged on the franchise quarterback scale and not the developing QB one. Right now, Fields is a guy you can win with but not one you win because of.
In Cam Newton's book, he's not a "game-changer."
Fields will be the first one to say he has to be better. It was, in fact, one of the first things he said after the loss. Everything can be better around him, too. But at some point, he needs to consistently play quarterback at a high level, especially in critical moments.
He hasn't done that.
He isn't their biggest problem. Far from it. But he hasn't been the solution either. That's what you want in a true franchise quarterback.
Overreaction? No.
I see the vibes didn't leave one fan.
I do think Eberflus' impact has been underrated. I think it's easy to forget how bad this defense was early on against the Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, and Denver Broncos.
Eberflus has put his stamp on the defense and has pushed almost all of the right buttons since the arrival of Montez Sweat.
Unfortunately, he wasn't hired just to be the defensive coordinator.
CHICAGO BEARS
While those collapses might not be on the defense, the Bears' inability to finish falls squarely on the head coach. The fact that the Bears have spent 15 weeks talking about a failure to execute in critical moments and have been unable to fix it is an indictment on the head coach and his staff. The fact that key players have been critical of Eberflus' third-and-15 play call- the one that dropped defensive tackle Justin Jones into coverage- tells you something has been bubbling.
Eberflus has done a sensational job with the defense and hasn't gotten enough credit. It's likely what will save his job. He deserves all the flowers for that and all the criticism that comes with everything else.
Overreaction? No.
This is precisely what a smart organization would do.
The last two times the Bears drafted a quarterback in the first round -- Mitchell Trubisky and Justin Fields -- they drafted them to a lame-duck head coach before thrusting them onto a new staff that didn't draft them in Year 2.
If the Bears are going to draft either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, they should wipe out the current staff and hire one that can evaluate the prospects, pick their quarterback, and be on the same timeline as a unit.
Jim Harbaugh, Ben Johnson, Frank Smith.
Take your pick.
I think the reality is that Eberflus likely will get a third season. If the Bears don't let go of the rope in the final three games, they could finish at 7-10 or 8-9. Given how the season started -- which is on Eberflus -- that will probably get him a stay.
But the smart move is to clean it out and start fresh with everyone on the same timeline.
Overreaction? Yes and no.
I think getting a new offensive coordinator is probably in the cards, whether Getsy deserves the axe or not. Likewise, I believe Eberflus will remain, and changing up the offensive might be part of the deal to stay.
With the Panthers' pick, it's going to depend on where it winds up. Old friend Chris Tabor led the Panthers to a win over the Falcons, and now Carolina is a win away from being tied with the New England Patriots and Arizona Cardinals. The Panthers' strength of schedule is tied with New England, but the Patriots will likely edge them by the end of the season.
I don't think the Bears can trade the No. 1 pick and pass on a quarterback two years in a row. I know Fields is talented, and the flashes have been there, but passing on Williams might get you fired if you're Ryan Poles. Trading Fields won't.
If the pick lands at No. 2 and the Bears only like one of the top two quarterbacks, the scenario gets a little stickier.
Trading down for more picks always looks good on paper, but eventually, you have to add blue-chip talent at premium positions. The best way to do that is in the top 10 of the draft. The Bears might trade down from their own slot, but it's hard to see them trading out of a top-two pick.
Picking up the fifth-year option on Fields seems unlikely with the way the winds are blowing. It feels like a quarterback change is imminent, barring an improbably closing statement or the Panthers moving to the No. 3 slot in the draft.
Overreaction? No.
I said at the time that the Bears should have drafted a center at some point on Day 2. The Bears liked Joe Tippmann, but he went early in Round 2 to the New York Jets. John Michael Schmitz went at No. 57 to the New York Giants. The Bears could have drafted Schmitz with one of their second-round picks and gambled that either Tyrique Stevenson or Gervon Dexter would be available in the third round, where they took Pickens.
Where the Bears really erred was not using one of their Day 3 picks to take a flyer on either Luke Wypler or Olu Oluwatimi. Wypler went in the sixth round, and Oluwatimi went in the fifth.
In 104 pass-blocking snaps this season, Oluwatimi has given up just one pressure. It's a small sample size, but the Bears could have, at the very least, used one of them as interior depth in Year 1 with starter upside down the line.
That was the whiff.