Chicago Bears projected 2023 draft selection, scenarios


Since the Bears have the second-worst win percentage in the NFL as of this writing, they currently own the No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft. 

But, the Bears, along with the rest of the NFL, have five more weeks of games to play in the regular season. 

MORE: Here's the rest of the Bears' 2023 schedule

Hence, the Bears' draft pick could change from No. 2 to virtually anywhere else in the draft not further than the No. 18 overall pick. (The top 18 draft selections are given to those who will not participate in the NFL playoffs, and the Bears were eliminated from playoff contention this past Sunday.)

ESPN's FPI (Football Power Index) indicates the Bears have an overwhelmingly large chance of securing a pick in the top ten draft selections (99.1 percent). They also report the Bears to have an 85.7 percent chance of landing in the top five, yet a 3.5 percent chance of landing the first selection. 

According to the same metric, they calculated the Bears' average draft position of 3.7 for all considerable measurements. That ranks as the third-lowest behind the Detroit Lions (pick from the Los Angeles Rams) and the Houston Texans. 

Here are a couple of scenarios to keep in mind for the Bears' draft position:

If the Bears lose out, the worst draft pick they would receive is the No. 3 overall selection. The Bears are one of three three-win teams, as of this writing (Los Angeles Rams, Denver Broncos). For the Bears to own the No. 2 overall pick, they need to record fewer wins than the Broncos and Rams. If the Bears tie with either of those teams, they will forfeit the pick because the tie-breaker is the strength of the schedule. Unfortunately, the Bears' have the highest strength of schedule amongst every projected non-playoff team. 

If the Bears win one game of the remaining four, the worst draft pick they would receive is No. 7. This is because the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints play each other during the last week of the regular season, so one team is forced to have a worse record than 4-13 in this scenario. Again, in this situation, the Bears would surrender a higher pick to the other four-win teams because they have the highest strength of schedule. 

This scenario goes onward for another three wins to the Bears. The point, however, is this – the Bears play with fire for every win they tally the rest of the season. A win would give them a better record, hence a potentially worse draft pick. But, the Bears can't win any tiebreakers against their draft position opponents because they have the highest strength of schedule, meaning they would lose every tiebreaker. 

Now that the Bears have officially been eliminated from the playoffs, there isn't much more to accomplish this season. Justin Fields proved he is the team's starting quarterback and the organization has major fish to fry this offseason in free agency and the draft. Since the team already has its quarterback, they hold a lot of potential leverage with their draft position in a top-heavy quarterback draft. 

All that's left to do is lose and hope the teams below them tack on meaningless wins. 

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