The Bears’ chances to make the playoffs this season are slim. Slimmer than the chances that a New Year’s resolution is carried out through July.
But they still have a chance, all the same.
A lot needs to happen for the Bears to make the playoffs, and they’ll need a lot of help from some bad teams. When you break it down, there are three simple steps that need to happen. Then there are several branches in the playoff multiverse from there.
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Note: I did not include ties because including ties would absolutely break my brain. Also, I used several playoff calculators from different sources to try to check my work as best as I could.
STEP ONE: BEARS NEED TO WIN OUT
There are already seven teams in the NFC with eight wins. With just seven playoff spots, the Bears need to match that mark. They currently sit at 6-9, so they’ll need to beat both the Falcons this week and the Packers in the regular season finale to hit eight wins themselves.
STEP TWO: RAMS NEED TO LOSE OUT
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The Rams are only contending for a wildcard spot since the 49ers already locked up the NFC West title. If the Rams win a single game, they’ll be at nine wins and ahead of the Bears. But if they lose to each the Giants and the 49ers, they’ll be tied with the Bears at eight wins. The Bears would then edge the Rams out on the conference record tiebreaker, with the Rams at 6-6 against NFC opponents and the Bears at 7-5.
STEP THREE: SEAHAWKS NEED TO LOSE OUT
Same deal with the Rams in step two. If the Seahawks lose to the Steelers and the Cardinals, they’ll be tied with the Bears at eight wins. Once again, the Bears win the conference record tiebreaker. But one win puts them at 9-8 and ahead of the Bears.
FUNKY PLAYOFF PICTURE TIME
You might be thinking to yourself, why do the Bears need both the Rams and Seahawks to lose out if they own the tiebreaker against each of them?
That’s because the Bears will necessarily lose one of their tiebreakers against a divisional opponent. If the Bears, Vikings and Packers are all left to fight for the No. 7 seed, the Bears will be left out.
That’s because the Vikings and Packers each sit at 7-8 and play each other next week. One of them will get to at least eight wins and finish with at least a 3-3 record in the NFC North. That’s the same division record the Bears will have if they win out.
From there, we go to a tiebreaker: record against common opponents. Both the Packers and the Vikings have the Bears beat in this department.
If the Packers beat the Vikings, Green Bay will beat the Bears in the common opponents tiebreaker thanks to wins against the Chargers, Chiefs, Panthers and Saints.
If the Vikings beat the Packers, they’ll win the common opponent tiebreaker with wins over the Raiders, Saints, Falcons and Panthers.
Which leads us to the playoff multiverse.
UNIVERSE ONE: BUCCANEERS BEAT SAINTS, WIN NFC SOUTH IN WEEK 17
If the Bucs beat the Saints in Week 17, they’ll win the NFC South (because we already have the Bears beating the Falcons in Week 17, too). That would eliminate the Saints and the Falcons since three-way ties get weird. Essentially, it would come down to a conference record tiebreaker and the Bears would have the edge over each team.
But there’s still a chance for the Packers and Vikings to each qualify for the postseason in this universe and leave the Bears looking towards next year.
UNIVERSE ONE - BRANCH ONE: VIKINGS BEAT PACKERS WEEK 17
If the Bucs beat the Saints and the Vikings beat the Packers in Week 17– and if everything happens in steps one through three– the Bears will make the playoffs due to the multi-team tiebreaker rules listed above.
UNIVERSE ONE - BRANCH TWO: PACKERS BEAT VIKINGS WEEK 17
If the Bucs win the division in Week 17 and the Packers beat the Vikings, then the Bears will need the Lions to beat the Vikings in Week 18. If not, then the Bears, Vikings and Packers will all be tied at 8-9, and the Bears will be the odd team out.
UNIVERSE TWO: SAINTS BEAT BUCS IN WEEK 17, BUCS WIN NFC SOUTH IN WEEK 18
If the Bucs don’t lock up the division in Week 17, they have another shot with a win against the Panthers in Week 18.
Things get whack from here. Buckle up.
UNIVERSE TWO - BRANCH ONE: VIKINGS BEAT PACKERS IN WEEK 17
This one is the most simple outcome in universe two. All the Bears need is for the Falcons to beat the Saints, then they’re in.
UNIVERSE TWO - BRANCH TWO: PACKERS BEAT VIKINGS IN WEEK 17
Hope you’re keeping up because this is more convoluted than your cousin describing how every single piece of the Marvel Cinematic Universe still fits together over Christmas dinner. In this scenario, we’ve got even more branches to go down before we get any clarity.
If the Packers beat the Vikings in Week 17, but then the Vikings beat the Lions in Week 18, it’s over. Bears out.
But if the Lions beat the Vikings in Week 18, the Bears get in with a Falcons win. If the Saints beat the Falcons, the Bears are out again.
UNIVERSE THREE: SAINTS BEAT BUCS IN WEEK 17, WIN NFC SOUTH IN WEEK 18
In order for this to happen, the Saints will need to beat the Falcons and the Buccaneers will need to lose to the Panthers in Week 18. It’s unlikely, but hey, we’ve been treading water in the deep end for this entire column.
UNIVERSE THREE - BRANCH ONE: VIKINGS BEAT PACKERS WEEK 17
If the Saints win the NFC South and the Vikings beat the Packers in Week 17, the Bears will make the playoffs. It doesn’t matter what happens in the Vikings-Lions Week 18 game.
UNIVERSE THREE - BRANCH TWO: PACKERS BEAT VIKINGS WEEK 17
Only one outcome matters if the Saints with the NFC South and the Packers beat the Vikings in Week 17. If the Vikings beat the Lions, then the Bears miss the playoffs. If the Lions beat the Vikings, then the Bears make the playoffs.
UNIVERSE FOUR: FALCONS WIN NFC SOUTH
The only way the Falcons can win the NFC South in our Wild, Weird, Wacky World is if the Buccaneers lose out and then the Falcons beat the Saints in Week 18.
UNIVERSE FOUR - BRANCH ONE: VIKINGS BEAT PACKERS IN WEEK 17
Hey, a simple outcome! If the Falcons win the NFC South and the Vikings beat the Packers in Week 17 the Bears will make the playoffs.
UNIVERSE FOUR - BRANCH TWO: PACKERS BEAT VIKINGS IN WEEK 17
More scoreboard watching. If the Falcons somehow win the NFC South and the Packers beat the Vikings in Week 17, then the Bears’ fate rests with the Lions-Vikings game to close the season. If the Lions win, the Bears are in. If the Vikings win, the Bears are out.
That should do it! I hope you enjoyed the wild ride and I hope this serves as a decent guide for you to follow along over the last two weeks.