- Editor's Note: "10 free agent pitchers the White Sox should consider" originally appeared on Sox on 35th. Jordan Lazowski of Sox On 35th will be a regular contributor to NBC Sports Chicago's White Sox coverage for the 2022 season. You can read more of their coverage at SoxOn35th.com, and follow them on Twitter at @SoxOn35th.
After reviewing ten outfield names and five second base names that the White Sox could consider adding via free agency, we now arrive at the starting pitcher category. Through Ethan Katz, the White Sox have been rather transparent about their need to add another starting pitcher, while also stating that this pitcher is not likely to come from inside the system via Garrett Crochet.
Since the White Sox have been so forthcoming about their need, here are 10 free agent options the White Sox could look to sign in free agency to help fill their starting rotation, why they make sense for the team, and what a contract may look like for each of these players.
Carlos Rodon
2022 Statistics: 31 GS, 178.0 IP, 33.4 K%, 7.3 BB%, 2.88 ERA, 2.25 FIP, 6.2 fWAR
Hello again, old friend. If the White Sox are looking to shoot for the moon this offseason, Rodon would definitely be the place to turn. After opting out of the second year of his 2-year, $44M deal with the Giants, Rodon will look to score the major payday he had been projected to get back when he was drafted third overall by the White Sox.
Should the Giants not sign Rodon, they will get the extra draft pick via the qualifying offer that many had hoped the White Sox would get. However, with Rodon, it's pretty simple: after two very strong seasons and a very healthy 2022, he's taken care of any doubts about his health and abilities. Bringing him back to the rotation would give the White Sox the ability to run out one of the stronger top five starters in baseball: Cease, Rodon, Lynn, Giolito, and Kopech.
Potential Contract: 5 years, $140M. Outside of Verlander and deGrom, Rodon is probably going to get the biggest payday of all starting pitchers with the longest contract in terms of years. FanGraphs' projections have Rodon around $27.5M AAV, while some journalists have him getting as high as $30M AAV. While he may be out of the White Sox' price range based on comments from Rick Hahn, he remains one of the top starters on the market and should at least garner consideration from the team.
Noah Syndergaard
2022 Statistics: 24 GS (25 G), 134.2 IP, 16.8 K%, 5.5 BB%, 3.94 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 2.2 fWAR
MLB
Syndergaard isn't the top-of-the-rotation starter he projected to be a few years ago with New York, but he remains an incredibly effective starter - albeit with plenty of injury risk. His strikeout rate has dropped from as high as 29.3% in 2016 all the way down to 16.8% in 2022, though his walk rate has pretty consistently been around 5.5%. Perhaps as no surprise, his velocity has dipped all the way from the high-90s to the mid-90s, forcing him to become more of a sinkerballer as of late. He still has two great offspeed pitches in his curveball and slider, but still, this is not the same Noah Syndergaard we all remember watching as a Met.
Potential Contract: 2 years, $30M. As a result of the above, he's going to get paid as such. He has the ceiling now, as a 31-year-old, of a mid-rotation starter if he can stay healthy. However, because that's far from a guarantee, Syndergaard becomes a great buy-low option who has the potential to outperform his contract.
Jameson Taillon
2022 Statistics: 32 GS, 177.1 IP, 20.7 K%, 4.4 BB%, 3.91 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 2.3 fWAR
A former top prospect with Pittsburgh, Taillon has settled well into a mid-rotation role in his past two seasons with New York. His fastball spin (85th percentile) and curveball spin (83rd percentile) are both well above average, giving him the sort of stuff that can easily take a step forward under Ethan Katz – however, they’re already good as they are. In addition, Taillon’s 1.62 BB/9 goes a long way toward helping a White Sox staff whose starting pitcher’s BB/9 was 23rd in all of baseball. Someone who can throw 170+ innings of sub-4.00 ERA ball is exactly what the White Sox should be looking for, especially when you begin to compare yourselves to the Astros.
The top five starters for the 2022 World Series Champion Houston Astros threw about 830 IP. With Taillon, the White Sox’ top five starters could conceivably go about matching that: Cease (170-180), Lynn (160-180), Giolito (160-180), Kopech (150-160), and Taillon (170-180). In addition, the Astros’ top five starters posted a 2.94 ERA for the season. The White Sox, with their current crew, could conceivably get near the 3.00 – 3.20 mark if all went well. That’s a bit more of a lofty goal compared to the innings pitched goal, but signing someone like Taillon and building a rotation of Cease, Lynn, Taillon, Giolito, and Kopech is one that competes with some of the best in the American League.
Potential Contract: 3 years, $39M. Taillon posted a sub-4.00 ERA and has a projected market value of around $14M. FanGraphs crowdsourcing put him at around $12M, while starters like him last season (Alex Wood, Yusei Kikuchi, Jon Gray, Anthony DeSclafani) got around $12-$14M. So, I went right in the middle with this multi-year deal for a mid-rotation arm with very intriguing stuff.