Picking a winner for a NASCAR race is no easy task.
Through 17 races this season, 11 different drivers have won a race. Last year, there were a record-tying 19 different winners over the 36 races.
Now add in the fact that the series has never before raced on a street course, and that makes predicting what will happen in the Grant Park 220 nearly impossible. The best way to handicap the field is by using statistics from this season and career statistics at road course races, but even that is no guarantee.
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With that in mind, here are four drivers to watch as potential contenders in the Grant Park 220:
Martin Truex Jr.
Team: No. 19 Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing, Bass Pro Shops
2023 stats (17 starts): 2 wins, 6 top-fives, 9 top-10s, 484 laps led, first in points standings
Career road course stats (47 starts): 5 wins, 14 top-fives, 22 top-10s, 353 laps led, 14.1 average finish
Chicago outlook: No one is hotter than Truex right now, as the 43-year-old veteran is riding a four-race top-five streak heading into Chicago. He finished second last year at Nashville and won the last road course race at Sonoma on June 11 after leading 51 laps. Truex has a history of success in the Windy City, with two prior wins at nearby Chicagoland Speedway in 2016 and 2017.
Chase Elliott
Team: No. 9 Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports, Hooters
2023 stats (10 starts): 0 wins, 4 top-fives, 6 top-10s, 38 laps led, 25th in points standings
Career road course stats (26 starts): 7 wins, 15 top-fives, 18 top-10s, 470 laps led, 8.0 average finish
Chicago outlook: The 2020 series champion needs a win after missing seven races this year due to injury and suspension. Lucky for him, Chicago could be the place to do it. Even though Elliott hasn’t won on a road course since 2021, he seems to have more consistent speed than anybody – regardless of the track. On top of that, he’s posted consecutive top-five finishes since returning from his one-race suspension earlier in June.
Tyler Reddick
Team: No. 45 Toyota, 23XI Racing, Monster Energy
2023 stats (17 starts): 1 win, 5 top-fives, 7 top-10s, 201 laps led, 13th in points standings
Career road course stats (17 starts): 3 wins, 5 top-fives, 10 top-10s, 131 laps led, 13.4 average finish
Chicago outlook: Over the last two years, Reddick has overtaken Elliott as NASCAR’s premier road racer. The 27-year-old California native has three wins, four top-fives and six top-10s over eight road starts since the start of 2022. He won at Circuit of the Americas in March, leading 41 of 75 laps in the process. Currently on a streak of three straight finishes of 30th or worse, Reddick should be happy to finally return to a road course.
A.J. Allmendinger
Team: No. 16 Chevrolet, Kaulig Racing, Bath Planet
2023 stats (17 starts): 0 wins, 0 top-fives, 3 top-10s, 1 lap led, 19th in points standings
Career road course stats (34 starts): 2 wins, 7 top-fives, 17 top-10s, 162 laps led, 15.9 average finish
Chicago outlook: Looking at stats alone won’t tell the story for Allmendinger. He’s struggled this year in his first full-time Cup Series season since 2018, but the No. 16 has scored consecutive top-10 finishes to carry some momentum into Chicago. On a road course, there aren’t many drivers more skilled than Allmendinger. He is one of the only drivers in the field with street course experience, too – albeit in open wheel cars.