The Bears' home slate ended with a bang on New Year's Eve as quarterback Justin Fields put together his best game as an NFL quarterback in a hope-inspiring 37-17 win over the Atlanta Falcons.
On the day the Bears secured the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft via the Carolina Panthers, Fields gave general manager Ryan Poles something to think about, and his play sparked the home faithful in a chorus of "We Want Fields!" chants as the game wound down.
The 7-9 Bears were eliminated from the playoffs Sunday, but their turnaround from a dismal 0-4 start has been nothing short of impressive. The vibes are at an all-time high at Halas Hall, with everyone believing the back half of the 2023 season will be the spark that leads the Bears back to true contention in 2024.
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Sunday's season finale against the Green Bay Packers will see the red-hot Bears enter a playoff-charged atmosphere against their hated rival that needs a win to get into the playoffs. It will be Fields' final chance to leave a positive impression on Poles before the Bears' general manager enters into a franchise-defining offseason.
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That is, of course, where we begin this week's overreactions mailbag:
Overreaction? No
How could it not be? I don't think there's any debate about this.
Fields has one final chance to prove that he's making real strides as an NFL passer. He was terrific against the Falcons, but if he can follow it up with another stellar game to knock the Packers out of the playoffs, that will be a big feather in his cap.
Field has struggled against the Packers in his career.
Fields has thrown for 938 yards, four touchdowns, and seven interceptions while completing 63.9 percent of his passes in five career games vs. the Packers. He has also rushed for 267 yards and two touchdowns.
Showing he can play well against and beat the Packers isn't something to dismiss. While it might be just a data point to the analytical Poles, it will be something of import to ownership.
Packers quarterback Jordan Love's late-season surge also adds another element to Sunday's game.
While Fields has improved over his last six games, he has still thrown for just 1,213 yards, five touchdowns, and three interceptions since his return. His 80.9 rating over that time has raised Fields to 21st in the NFL in rating at 85.8, just above Gardner Minshew and below Kyler Murray.
Love, meanwhile, has been surgical of late. In his last six games, Love has thrown for 1,512 yards, 14 touchdowns, and just one interception. He has completed 68.8 percent of his passes and has a rating of 110.2 over that time.
There's a lot at play and a lot at stake for Fields on Sunday. There's no question it's the biggest game of his young career.
Overreaction? No
That's a good haul if it's on the table. There's no question that Poles will be able to extract a heavy price should he decide to stick with Fields and trade the No. 1 pick.
But if he does that, I might look for the Bears to try and trade down from one to two and then again from two to three to maximize return and still stay ahead of Arizona. It's a near certainty that both Washington and New England, who currently sit at two and three, will be looking to draft quarterbacks.
The Bears should be looking for a Robert Griffin III-type trade return. Washington traded three first-round picks in 2012 to move up to draft Griffin. Two ones and two twos is a nice haul, but trading twice might net you the biggest return.
As far as Marvin Harrison Jr. and Johnny Newton, both are great players. I think Harrison is a can't-miss pick, but this is a deep wide receiver class with guys like Rome Odunze and Malik Nabers, who will be exceptional pros.
I like Newton, but the Bears should prioritize finding a second edge rusher with one of their first-round picks. Gervon Dexter has played well lately, and I'd like to see them add blue-chip players at receiver (Harrison/Odunze/Nabers) and edge (Dallas Turner/Jared Verse) if they go away from the quarterback.
I think the discussion about being safe and having a high floor will be the biggest selling point to keep Fields. You know what he is and that he isn't done developing. You know he is is an NFL starter with upside. You don't know if Caleb Williams or Drake Maye are.
But opportunities like this -- to pick No. 1 in a draft with two elite QB prospects with a pick that isn't yours -- don't come along. The question isn't: Is it safer to stick with Fields? The question is: Can you win a Super Bowl with Fields as your starter? Can you win one because of him? Can he outduel Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow on the biggest stage?
If the answer isn't a quick yes, but the Bears think Williams or Maye can develop into a top-five quarterback, then the choice isn't that hard.
Safe doesn't get you far in the NFL.
It's a hell of a trade, though, if you can find it.
Overreaction? Yeah, but that's just how business is done in the NFL
If the Bears stick with Fields, they'll have him at a $6 million cap hit next season and will pick up the fifth-year option, which is projected to be about $21.9 million in 2025.
I've seen some people suggest they keep him and decline the option, asking him to play in a true make-or-break season in 2024. That makes no sense. If you're passing on Williams and Maye, then you believe in Fields' potential and want him under contract at an affordable number for as long as possible.
As far as his second contract, that's the actual money part of the No. 1/QB conundrum. If the Bears pass on Williams and Maye, they are saying they feel comfortable with where Fields is and what he will become to pay him somewhere in the $40-$50 million per year range. That's just the going rate for good quarterbacks. Hell, Daniel Jones makes $40 million a year. If Fields plays well over the final two years of his rookie deal, he'll likely be in the $50-plus million range, given how the market is going.
Mahomes currently makes $45 million per season, but I bet that number will get reworked in the future. Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts make over $50 million per season. Russell Wilson makes $49 million.
If the Bears bet on Fields, they are saying they believe he will keep ascending and will be worth that money.
Quarterback contracts are out of hand. You don't need to win the Super Bowl to get a massive deal. You just need to be the next one up. If the Bears stick with Fields and he plays well, the deal comes with it. The trophy isn't a prerequisite. If they stick with him and he plateaus or worse, well, then we aren't talking about a second contract—just another rebuild.
Overreaction? No
Let's ignore the OC candidates part.
I think the consistency part of this equation is really important to the franchise's trajectory now that we know this staff can coach.
Fields said that a big part of the Bears' success in 2023 is that they've had another year in schemes they understand and are more comfortable with everything. An under-talked-about part of Eberflus and his staff's success is their ability to develop young players. The Bears have done a great job of getting talented young players to improve during the season and put guys like Kyler Gordon and Jaquan Brisker on track to have big gains in their second season. It's fair to expect similar leaps next year for Darnell Wright, Tyrique Stevenson, Terell Smith, and Gervon Dexter.
The talk of firing Getsy -- for the record, I don't think it happens, nor should it -- had me thinking about the offensive coaches that might leave should a new OC come in. Offensive line coach Chris Morgan has done a great job developing the Bears' O-line, especially Teven Jenkins who has gone from a potential 2022 cut to Pro-Bowl-caliber guard. Wide receivers coach Tyke Tolbert is one of the most respected coaches in the league.
Those aren't guys you want to lose when they have shown the ability to teach and develop.
As far as Getsy is concerned, I've been critical of him over these first two seasons. It hasn't been pretty a lot of the time. The scripts are good. The off-script stuff has been an issue. But he's a young play-caller who is getting better and is allowed to evolve and develop. I really liked his game plan against the Falcons, and Eberflus admitted that Getsy is growing as a playcaller and game planner.
I think the [coaching] band is coming back in 2024. At this point, it's hard to argue against it.
Overreaction? Probably
The arrow is trending straight up for the Bears. They have gone from abysmal to somewhere in the middle. The defense is playing at an elite level.
But what they do at quarterback will determine what the ceiling is in 2024. If it's a rookie, there are likely to be growing pains. While the Bears are building, they don't have the roster to protect the rookie quarterback from crippling mistakes the way the 2022 49ers did.
If it's Fields, and he takes another leap as a passer, it's easier to see a playoff run in 2024.
But two months ago, we were talking about firing everyone and potentially restarting again. Now, they are 7-9 and are a couple of "WTF" moments from being in the playoffs.
Dream big. Anything happens in the NFL all the time.