The NHL preseason is officially behind us, which means the next game Connor Bedard plays in will count for real. He finished his four exhibition games with one goal and four assists for five points, which led the team.
I was scanning the over/under point projection for Bedard's rookie season, and most oddsmakers seem to have him at about 69.5. Give me the over, by a fairly significant amount.
Assuming he plays all 82 games, my official prediction for Bedard is 34 goals and 50 assists for 84 points. Let me share why.
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First off, the Chicago Blackhawks are going to — and should — unleash their No. 1 overall pick. They didn't show any signs of sheltering him during the preseason, where he averaged more than 20 minutes per game. I wouldn't be surprised if he's in that range during the regular season.
The main focus of my argument for Bedard finishing with at least a point-per-game average is this: The goals-per-game average in the NHL last season was the highest it's been since 1993-94. The average power-play success rate was the ninth-highest percentage EVER.
Bedard is as special of a prospect as we've seen in years, and it's a perfect time for an offensive dynamo like him to step into the NHL and flourish right away, given his skillset and where the league has trended over the last decade.
I have zero doubt Bedard can hit the 34-goal mark. Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine, who went No. 1 and No. 2 overall in 2016, scored 40 and 36 goals in their respective rookie seasons immediately after being drafted. It's certainly not impossible.
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My biggest question is whether Bedard can actually get to the 50 assists that I predicted. Does he have a strong enough supporting cast to help him reach that plateau? Will the Blackhawks be decent enough offensively to help him get there?
After watching training camp and the preseason, I believe the Blackhawks will be in the top half of the power play this season mostly because of what Bedard brings to the table, and that's the area where he can really feast. Bedard's shot gets so much praise — rightfully so — but because it's so lethal, he's very good at using that to his advantage by setting up his teammates since his threat to shoot draws most of the attention.
If he gets between 20-25 assists on the power play — which isn't unreasonable — I think Bedard can very easily snag the other half at even strength. More than 100 players last season recorded at least 25 assists at even strength; Bedard is capable of that because he's just as good of a playmaker as he is a goal scorer.
I've written about this in the past, but only 37 players in NHL history have averaged at least a point-per-game in their rookie season (minimum 40 games as the requirement). Only five have done so in the last 27 years:
1. Alex Ovechkin: 1.31 (106 points in 81 games)
2. Sidney Crosby: 1.26 (102 points in 81 games)
3. Evgeni Malkin: 1.09 (85 points in 78 games)
4. Connor McDavid: 1.07 (48 points in 45 games)
5. Mathew Barzal: 1.04 (85 points in 82 games)
I'm officially on record saying Bedard will join that group.
Maybe I'm setting too high of a bar for an 18-year-old kid with the weight of a franchise on his shoulders. Maybe this prediction will look silly at the end of April.
All I know is, Bedard has made his doubters look silly by shattering expectations at every level. And I'm not going to be one of them.