The Bears earned their sixth win of the season and their fourth in the last six weeks against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday at Soldier Field.
Before their contest against the Cardinals, their pick stood fifth in the first round. After defeating the Cardinals, their pick slid to No. 8 overall. They overcame a tie with the New York Jets, who own the same 6-9 record, because of their lower strength of schedule.
But their most significant pick --- the one they own from the Carolina Panthers --- remains at the very top: No. 1. Luckily, the New England Patriots escaped with their fourth win of the season over the Denver Broncos, giving the Bears a two-game buffer with them.
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In essence, one team threatens the Bears' odds of earning the No. 1 pick for a second consecutive NFL draft.
The team the Bears defeated, the Arizona Cardinals, has just one win more than the Panthers. One Panthers loss gives the Bears, in all likelihood, the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL draft. But two more wins and a Cardinals' loss loses the Bears that coveted pick.
If they tie records? The tiebreaker goes to the strength of the schedule. As of this writing, the Panthers own a lower strength of schedule, giving them the right to the higher pick.
The Panthers' final two games are against the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Jaguars might be without quarterback Trevor Lawrence due to a shoulder injury. And the last time the Panthers faced off against the Buccaneers, they lost by just three points.
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It could be a tight finish. The Cardinals play against the Eagles, who are tied for the best record in the NFC, and the Seahawks, who defeated the Cardinals by 10 points in their previous matchup. The Bears need the Cardinals to win, or the Panthers to lose out to guarantee them the No. 1 pick.
The Bears, on the other hand, play against the Falcons and the Packers over their final two-game stretch. If they win their final two games, yet miss the playoffs, the worst they can do is the No. 18 pick. But if they lose the final two games, they'll at least earn the No. 8 pick in the draft.
Where will the Bears' picks end up in the 2024 NFL draft?
ESPN puts their chances at 95.9% to earn the No. 1 pick.