Chicago Bears projected 2023 draft selection, scenarios


Since the Bears have the second-worst win percentage in the NFL tied with the Denver Broncos, they currently own the No. 3 overall pick in the upcoming NFL draft. 

But, the Bears, along with the rest of the NFL, have five more weeks of games to play in the regular season. 

MORE: Here's the rest of the Bears' 2023 schedule

Hence, the Bears' draft pick could change from No. 3 to virtually anywhere else in the draft not further than the No. 18 overall pick. (The top 18 draft selections are given to those who will not participate in the NFL playoffs, and the Bears were eliminated from playoff contention this past Sunday.)

ESPN's FPI (Football Power Index) indicates the Bears have an overwhelmingly large chance of securing a pick in the top ten draft selections (99.1 percent). They also report the Bears to have an 85.7 percent chance of landing in the top five, yet a 3.5 percent chance of landing the first selection. 

According to the same metric, they calculated the Bears' average draft position of 3.7 for all considerable measurements. That ranks as the third-lowest behind the Detroit Lions (pick from the Los Angeles Rams) and the Houston Texans. 

Here are a couple of scenarios to keep in mind for the Bears' draft position:

If the Bears lose out, the worst draft pick they would receive is the No. 3 overall selection. This is the current selection they own. They could grab the first pick, but it would take the Texans winning three of their last four games and the Bears losing out. 

However, there's a chance they can climb back to the second pick. They need the Denver Broncos to win one more game than them by season's end. The Broncos face the Cardinals and the Rams over the next two weeks, so it's possible they can pick up a win to break the tie between the two teams. 

If the Bears win one game of the remaining four, the worst draft pick they would receive is No. 7. This is because, of the four, four-win teams, the Bears would have the highest strength of schedule, pushing them to the seventh pick in the draft. 

This scenario goes onward for another three wins to the Bears. The point, however, is this – the Bears play with fire for every win they tally the rest of the season. A win would give them a better record, hence a potentially worse draft pick. But, the Bears can't win any tiebreakers against their draft position opponents because they have the highest strength of schedule, meaning they would lose every tiebreaker. 

Now that the Bears have officially been eliminated from the playoffs, there isn't much more to accomplish this season.

Justin Fields proved he is the team's starting quarterback and the organization has major fish to fry this offseason in free agency and the draft. Since the team already has its quarterback, they hold a lot of potential leverage with their draft position in a top-heavy quarterback draft. 

All that's left to do is lose and hope the teams below them tack on meaningless wins. 

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